Publication details.

Paper

Year:2021
Author(s):P. Woodworth, J. Hunter, M. Marcos, C. Hughes
Title:Towards reliable global allowances for sea level rise
Journal:GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN:0921-8181
Volume:203
Pages:
D.O.I.:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103522
Web:https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103522
Abstract:© 2021 Elsevier B.V.Tide gauge data and information from tide, surge and ocean models have been used to calculate and validate the Gumbel scale parameters of extreme sea level distributions along the world coastline. The inclusion of ocean model information is found to result in significantly improved correspondence between observed and modelled scale parameters to that obtained using tide and surge model information alone. The scale parameters so obtained are shown to be consistent with findings reported previously, such as in assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, the considerably improved provision of scale parameters along the coast means that coastal planners, and others concerned with impacts of sea level rise, can now undertake more complete investigations of the likely increase in sea level exceedance frequencies. In addition, coastal engineers will have access to more reliable estimates of the ‘sea level allowances’ needed to design defences for protecting coastal populations.

Related staff

  • Marta Marcos Moreno
  • Related departments

  • Oceanography and Global Change
  • Related research groups

  • Marine Technologies, Operational and Coastal Oceanography