Publication details.

Paper

Year:2014
Author(s):M. Marcos, A. Amores
Title:Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise
Journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN:0094-8276
JCR Impact Factor:4.196
Volume:41
Pages:2502-2507
D.O.I.:10.1002/2014GL059766
Web:http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84899034015&partnerID=40&md5=054247005b0c68d0587aa5b25414f5b7
Abstract:Changes in thermosteric sea level at decadal and longer time scales respond to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability of the climate system. Disentangling these contributions is essential to quantify the impact of human activity in the past and to anticipate thermosteric sea level rise under global warming. Climate models, fed with radiative forcing, display a large spread of outputs with limited correspondence with the observationally based estimates of thermosteric sea level during the last decades of the twentieth century. Here we extract the common signal of climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 using a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function technique for the period 1950-2005. Our results match the observed trends, improving the widely used approach of multimodel ensemble averaging. We then compute the fraction of the observed thermosteric sea level rise of anthropogenic origin and conclude that 87% of the observed trend in the upper 700-m since 1970 is induced by human activity. Key Points Global thermosteric sea level rise at 87% since 1970 is human induced The S/N maximizing EOF improves the simple multimodel averaging The impact of gases concentrations is spatially heterogeneous © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Related staff

  • Marta Marcos Moreno
  • Ángel Miguel Amores Maimó
  • Related research groups

  • Marine Ecosystems Dynamics