Climate change and European aquatic RESources

CERES will provide the knowledge and tools needed to successfully adapt European fisheries and aquaculture sectors in marine and inland waters to anticipated climate change. We will identify and communicate risks, opportunities and uncertainties thereby enhancing the resilience and supporting the development of adaptive management and governance systems in these blue growth sectors. CERES strongly supports important European policy goals including self-sufficiency of the domestic supply of fish and shellfish.

Global warming and climate change are likely to affect all biosphere components, including the functioning of aquatic ecosystems and their organisms. Given the significant increase in human population (15% by 2024, 35% by 2050) and demand for secure, sufficient and safe food supplies, it is critical to predict and anticipate the nature and magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on food production, including marine-based (Bene et al. 2015). By working with the industries concerned CERES will help develop innovative adaptation and mitigation strategies to enhance resilience to perceived threats, and to facilitate access to opportunities (the ‘blue growth’ agenda). Providing short-, medium- and long-term projections for aquatic ecosystems and the threats and opportunities for industries that rely on these is not an easy task, and requires our transdisciplinary team of oceanographers and hydrologists, modellers, ecologists, aquatic physiologists, social scientists, economists, fishers and fish/shellfish farmers working in
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conjunction with managers. Detailed mechanistic understanding and complex models must be employed to incorporate the workings of these industries as well as global seafood markets and policy landscapes.
The EU now requires fishing to be environmentally sustainable, economically viable and socially acceptable to provide long-term European food security given prevailing and future climatic conditions. EU Policies, intended to also boost aquaculture and Strategic Guidelines, have been published outlining common priorities and general objectives. Climate change will affect the capacity to achieve these ambitions and a greater understanding is urgently needed to ensure that management measures remain appropriate and achievable. To specifically address these challenges, CERES will involve and closely cooperate with industry and policy stakeholders to:

1. Provide regionally and industry relevant, short-, medium- and long-term future projections of key environmental variables for European marine and freshwater ecosystems;
2. Integrate the resulting knowledge on changes in productivity, biology and ecology of wild and cultured animals (including key indirect/food web interactions), and ‘scale up’ to consequences for shellfish and fish populations and assemblages as well as their ecosystems and economic sectors;
3. Anticipate responses and assist in the adaptation of aquatic food production industries to underlying biophysical changes, including the development of early warning methods, new operating procedures, infrastructures, location choice and commercial markets;
4. Assess relative exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptive capacity within the European fisheries and aquaculture sectors;
5. Consider market-level responses to changes (both positive and negative) in commodity availability as a result of climate change;
6. Apply innovative risk-assessment methodologies that encompass drivers of change, threats to fishery and aquaculture resources, barriers to adaptation and likely consequences if mitigation measures are not put in place;
7. Formulate viable autonomous adaptation strategies (solutions) within the industries to circumvent/prevent perceived risks or to access future opportunities;
8. Formulate policy guidelines (solutions) and highlight management challenges where established governance structures may hinder successful adaptation to long-term climate change.
9. Effectively communicate these findings and tools to potential end-users and relevant stakeholders.

The CERES project itself is named after the Roman goddess of agriculture and fertility, emblematic of the EU’s ‘blue growth’ agenda. The total budget for CERES will be €5.58 million and the project will run over 48 months (2016-2019).